Introduction
The break out of China as real geopolitical giant with economic clout in the last decade is resonating across the world most curiously in the continent of Africa. While babel of opinions ride the waves in favour and in opposition, there are fundamental enablers for this development. Beneath and with these fundamental enablers are cold realities which may remain inert nevertheless irrefutable. These realities are clear to Beijing and chancelleries across Africa. Some of the points below highlight the issues at stake;
· Regardless of the increasing geopolitical profile of Beijing, it remains a state be it nation-state or civilisation-state. It is just another country on the Asian continental mass including her disputed territories and disputed continental shelves. Africa is a continent made up of many states with similar/dissimilar policies, institutions, government and strategic objectives.
· The communist party rule that commenced in 1949 brought a lot of international reversals and rejections for China including the abominable crime of being the only United Nations Security Council member to be deprived of her rightful seat (by United States). This situation was corrected by concerted efforts of African and Asian countries who lobbied for China’s UNSC to revert from Taipei to Beijing in 1971[1].
· Chinese government and Chinese Communist Party strategic objectives are to hold on to power unchallenged and to maintain internal national security (by any means necessary)[2]. This implies using the newly available enormous resources at her disposal to provide over a billion citizens with infrastructure, services, facilities and incentives to ensure high standard of living. By so doing potential internal tensions, political recriminations and power struggle are nipped in the bud.
· Chinese investment in Africa are part of strategic objective to readily access and purchase resources required to maintain her increasing economy and burgeoning consumption. It is not a moral venture to reward Africans, power elites and privateers.
· There are favourable conditions and attractive incentives in Africa open to every geopolitical power[3] which only Beijing saw fit to pursue further for a number of reasons including but not limited to gradual weakness of European Union, United States ambivalence on Africa and Russia clear avoidance of Africa in foreign policy. There is no evidence that Beijing is challenging the named powers which may suggestively lead to erroneous justification of Africa as battleground of geopolitical ambitions. These regressions open window of brinkmanship among African elites to deal with Beijing with freer hand.
· China is not ready and may never become an independent dominant geopolitical colossus. There are many reasons for this scenario. The decline of the west in real terms is currently restricted to Europe (an Union)[4] with the haemorrhaging of astute political leadership and increasing economic regression. United States remains and will remain in the scene as the undisputed geopolitical (economic & military) although limited power for at least 2 more generation as she possess the knowledge base, resources, institutions, vibrant population, and large economy if defence budget is trimmed considerably[5]. Nevertheless US eyes on Africa remain focused in large on her mineral resources and in limited spaces like Uganda, Rwanda, Egypt and Ethiopia. Even these capitals have increased their trade ties with Beijing which implies that Middle East distraction of Washington DC is an incentive to African chancelleries.
· Real benefit to Africa from trading with China will take generations to delineate clearly because most capitals and African governments have no public support, lack popular base, suffer from institutional decay, ravaged by conflicts and run like nepotistic enterprise. While the number of Chinese grants and loans are increasing with what seems like favourable conditions, evidence is lacking on the ability of various African governments to take real advantage with Beijing[6].
· Lopsided deals, weak foreign policy initiatives and lack of strategic vision dominate most of the bilateral agreements between Beijing and African capitals. With money paid for resources ‘flowing with pressure’ into elite coffers, wider populations within and beyond national capital do not benefit from the largesse. Internal divisions, political intrigues and ego clashes between elites are indicators for unsustainable dealings with China. Of course for no fault of Beijing.
· Most the investments, deals and agreements across Africa seem to be large construction and consumption projects where knowledge and managerial input of locals are severely limited (by Beijing). Knowledge transfer and sharing of research & development are limited in action and scope. Of course China is still sending her experts for further training in United States and Europe. The large African infrastructural complexes will surely require huge resources and expertise for maintenance.
· Another example of China’s loose bargain is population transfers to African countries. This is another evidence of African leaders’ inexperience in foreign affairs as potential explosion of tension from dumping of inexperienced, unqualified Chinese and poor-quality products in various markets overhangs.
· Finally for now China harbours superiority complex which may be tried out beyond her shores in Africa. For Chinese elites and most of the Chinese people, their origin is unique and separate from the rest of humanity. For these mindsets, Africa is not the origin & home of man[7].
[1] Clegg, J (2009) China’s Global Strategy Towards a Multipolar World. Pluto: London p.51
[2] Salisbury, H.S (1993) The New Emperors Mao and Deng. HarperCollins: London, Chapter 49
[3] Simms, B (2013) Europe The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present. Allen Lane: London p.257-259
[4] Connolly, B (2012) The Rotten Heart of Europe. Faber and Faber: London
[5] Bacevich, A (2008) The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism (Macmillan, USA)
[6] Cardenal, J.B & Araujo, H (2013) China’s Silent Army. Allen Lane: London, Chapters 2 & 16
[7] Jacques, M (2009) When China Rules the World, The rise of the Middle Kingdom and the end of Western World. Allen Lane: London, Chapter 8
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