Tuesday 19 June 2012

Balancing Equations against Nigeria Disintegration



The case for Nigeria’s territorial integrity is always made as some bet hedged against an inevitable. This implies an existence dynamically challenging to positions, designs and interests of diverse citizens in the construct constituting the territory, waters, airspace and continental shelf called Nigeria. However what is unclear is the weight of significance attached to defending the current status towards avoiding disintegration. Or is it taken for granted that Nigeria must be one in its current form?

The entity cobbled together in 1914 is an interesting piece undertaken without inquiry and consent of its eventual constituents. No doubt many of the constituents were taken unawares and those who understood it at the time resigned to radical change of reality after struggle. It is important that the different nationalities and communities that make up Nigeria are assumed to desire this forced union as long as it last.

Unfortunately history has shown that union (force or chosen) only survive in a consensus. For those who estimate or adopt that Nigeria will remain forever territorially unreconstructed seem to be ignorant students of history. They seem to ignore historical evidence of territorial change even in the glaring case that led to Nigeria’s origin. It is even against human nature to defy natural expression of discontinuation or reconfiguration in relationships. Friends, marriages and alliances serve various purposes for short and long term depending on internal and external conditions surrounding the relationships. Political relationship and territorial unions are not different.  

On another level there is the innate self flagellation at any suggestion that 19th century Berlin conference delineation is not sacrosanct. Are Nigerians or Africans condemned to abide by boundaries redrawn from outside? Whose interest is served by Berlin conference designs?

Those who take it for granted that Nigeria will remain as one should not forget that in part Nigeria has been territorially reconfigured in the not too distant past. 1961 plebiscite that saw exchange of communities between Nigeria and Cameroon is an example.  2008 ceding of territory of Bakassi again to Cameroon is another. Of course these exchanges were made under civilian governments, but the case for unity and integration has not been made forcefully through credible governance by various governments. It is taken for granted that unity is an existential certainty. Natural resources, military capacity and access/lack of access to the sea cannot stop such possible disintegration. Absence of conflict and friendly neighbours did not save Czechoslovakia.

Nigerians must accept that unity is not sacrosanct or no-go area in a popular local parlance. This is all the more plausible with an inter-generational bankruptcy of governance at all levels of government in the country. The waste and abuse unleashed since 1960 cannot be contained by denying citizens their aspiration for self determination even its speculation. Communities cannot be run down and be forced to watch their collective destiny decimated by external preponderance and mangled view of statehood.

Countries or states unite and disintegrate over time in relationship to internal and external geopolitical realities. Nigeria is no different. If the case for unity must be resounding then, real productive governance must be instituted and backed by law. There are numerous examples of change in the territorial status of countries. Even the United States used a combination of war, outright purchase and genocide to expand her territory. In 1903 Panama was relieved off Colombia for Panama Canal to be built to serve US interest. South Sudan disengaged forcefully from Sudan for similar reason to Nigeria’s ineptitude in governance. United Republic of Tanzania is an emergency cobbling of Tanganyika and Zanzibar to forestall perceived ambition of one man (Abdulrahman Mohamed Babu) in 1964.

There is no divine right to clinging to territories all the more territories designed for external manipulation. Even civilization states like China and United Kingdom have not been immune to loss of territories. Reconfiguration or disintegration of Nigeria is not an issue for imposition or denial rather an inevitable outcome over time and rather hastened by strategic errors of long term instability. If the current political continues, then when disintegration occurs there is high possibility that an inevitable resignation may have greater attraction than any attempt of fighting to save it.

Nigeria like any artificial construct has manufacture date and her expiration date must not be beyond consideration albeit realization. If the current malfeasance and corruption continues unabated, only convergence of time and forces will usher in her inevitable disintegration.

No comments:

Post a Comment